Introduction
Years ago, Professor Ai Yuejin famously said, \"Dignity is only found on the tip of a sword, and truth only within the range of cannons.\" This statement could not be more relevant when applied to the current situation between China and Japan.
In 1937, Japan used the pretext of \"missing soldiers\" to launch an invasion against China. Fast forward to 2023, Japan once again tried to use a similar excuse to question the actions of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The question now is, will Japan once again make the same choice it did decades ago?
展开剩余92%The Japanese Soldiers are Missing Again
In 2023, a news report from Japan caused a stir in the international community. Several members of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) mysteriously \"disappeared\" during a training exercise in the southern region of Japan. The report revealed that a UH-60JA helicopter of the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force lost contact near Miyako Island in Okinawa Prefecture.
The weather was clear that day, and the helicopter's mission was a routine patrol. However, during the flight, radar signals were suddenly lost, and no distress signals were sent. Such incidents are always significant for any nation, and Japan was on high alert. Within two days, various conspiracy theories quickly spread.
Some Japanese media outlets connected the disappearance of the Self-Defense Forces personnel with China. They pointed out that, when the helicopter went missing, a Chinese naval intelligence vessel had coincidentally appeared in the waters between Okinawa Island and Miyako Island. The message they were trying to convey was clear: the incident was linked to China.
There were even speculations that China had hijacked the missing personnel. For many who read this news, it seemed eerily familiar. Despite the Ministry of Defense’s clarification that no signs of external attack were found and that no contact was made with any foreign military vessels, Japanese netizens continued to speculate wildly. Some even claimed that the helicopter had entered China’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and was shot down after receiving a warning. Some went as far as suggesting that the Chinese Navy's 052D-class destroyer was responsible for the incident. American media outlets even published pictures of Chinese naval ships, subtly insinuating China's involvement.
Such \"provocations\" are not just isolated incidents, and it's far from coincidental. Over the years, Japan has continually intensified its military presence, especially in regions close to China, all while publicly championing a \"peace constitution.\" In 2022, Japan deployed anti-ship missile forces on Yonaguni Island, claiming it was a defense measure against a Chinese landing. However, a map shows that the island is only about 150 kilometers from Taiwan, a rather provocative deployment. In 2023, Japan approved the largest defense budget in its history, amounting to 6.8 trillion yen, nearly 2% of its GDP.
This budget is allocated largely for the procurement of U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles, medium-range anti-ship missiles, and F-35 fighter jets—weaponry clearly aimed at China’s East China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Japan claims it is preparing for defense, yet its actions suggest a strategy of ever-increasing pressure on China. When Chinese ships and planes carry out routine patrols in their own territorial waters, Japan’s media immediately dramatizes it as \"invasion.\" But when the Japanese Self-Defense Forces conduct frequent military drills near the Ryukyu Islands, close to Taiwan, they still claim to be \"peacekeepers\" of the Pacific. This reflects Japan's consistent strategy: it presents itself as the \"victim\" of a supposed threat while simultaneously provoking its neighbors under the guise of \"defense.\"
Would Japan Dare Take Action Against China?
On the surface, Japan appears increasingly \"assertive.\" However, we must not overlook the internal contradictions within Japan. On one hand, Japan's political landscape has shifted markedly to the right. Actions that were once unspoken are now being openly pursued. The Self-Defense Forces (SDF) are increasingly involved in overseas exercises, with a growing military focus. Japan has massively increased its military budget and introduced new defense strategies, marking what is widely regarded as the largest post-war military transformation.
On the other hand, Japanese society still holds a fundamentally anti-war stance. The public is overwhelmingly against sending troops into combat, and even with the government’s attempts to frame military actions as \"self-defense,\" it remains difficult to breach the country's non-war stance. Moreover, Japan knows full well that any actual provocation against China would come with consequences far beyond what they could endure. Much like the 2023 \"missing soldier incident,\" this event serves as a wake-up call to Japan's \"military adventurism.\"
Provoking China near its borders is not like playing a game with tanks; it’s a serious and deadly confrontation. The Japanese may not have the courage to take such a step. Even if Japan did take military action, the outcome would be far different from the events of 1937.
China's Growing Military Strength: A Deterrent
China has been making rapid strides in building its military strength. From the J-20 stealth fighter becoming operational to the mass deployment of the 055-class destroyers, China’s military might is no longer just a deterrent but a serious power in the region.
China’s development of advanced weapons systems, such as the DF-17 hypersonic missile, and the regular training of its dual aircraft carrier battle groups—Shandong and Fujian—are signals that China is prepared for any escalation. Moreover, China has fortified its defense capabilities in the South China Sea and continues to expand its radar networks, coastal missile systems, and anti-submarine capabilities in the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
China's strategic missile forces, particularly the DF-26, are also of particular concern to Japan. This medium-range missile is capable of striking both ground targets and naval vessels, exerting tremendous pressure on Japan, which is situated on the first island chain. In addition, China’s tri-dimensional strike system, which integrates the army, navy, and air force, keeps a close watch on Japanese military movements.
So, does Japan fear China? Absolutely. These developments are not about showing off military prowess but are necessary responses to the real and present threats in the region. China has no intention of pursuing military expansion, but it will not tolerate provocations on its doorstep. For countries like Japan, with \"hidden intentions,\" China’s military buildup serves as a necessary stabilizer.
Conclusion: Why China Strives for Strength
Japan’s recent actions only highlight why China strives to strengthen itself. China's ambition is not for war nor global dominance but for peace. History has proven that weakness does not command respect, and appeasement cannot guarantee peace. It is not an aircraft accident or a warship passing by that makes Japan anxious. Instead, it is China's steady and undeniable rise in military power over recent years that keeps Japan on edge.
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